Poilievre poised for comeback in Alberta stronghold

Byelection win in Battle River-Crowfoot looks inevitable for Poilievre

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Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre unexpectedly lost his Ontario-based seat in the House of Commons in the federal election. He’s running in a byelection in a safe Conservative riding in a different province. While some of his opponents and critics are hoping that lightning will strike twice, they can safely put this pipe dream to rest.

Poilievre was first elected in 2004. He ran as a Conservative MP in the Nepean–Carleton riding against David Pratt, a two-term Liberal MP and then Minister of National Defence. It was predicted to be a close race, and that’s exactly what happened. The 25-year-old, who had previously been involved in Reform Party and Canadian Alliance circles, worked hard in this riding. He established a strong ground game with new and existing grassroots support. He won the riding with 30,420 votes (45.7 per cent), while Pratt finished second with 26,684 votes (40.1 per cent).

The newly minted Conservative MP’s support in Nepean-Carleton expanded in the preceding elections. He won 54.7 per cent in 2006, followed by 55.84 per cent in 2008 and 54.45 per cent in 2011. When his old riding was recreated during the federal election redistribution in 2012, Poilievre shifted to the new riding of Carleton. It wasn’t quite as Conservative-leaning, which meant it would take more work to hang on to this seat.

The 2015 election was a tough battle for Poilievre, but he won 46.86 per cent versus Liberal candidate Chris Rodgers’s 43.74 per cent. He had an easier time against Rodgers in their 2019 rematch, winning 46.35 to 38.23 per cent. Poilievre nearly crossed the 50 per cent threshold in 2021, earning 49.9 per cent of the vote. He now seemed solidly entrenched in Carleton.

That’s what made Poilievre’s April 28 loss to lightly regarded Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy so surprising.

There were a few factors that likely contributed to this upset. The Ottawa region, where the Carleton riding is located, turned heavily against most Conservative candidates in this year’s election. Poilievre had to run a national campaign and couldn’t spend nearly as much time in his local riding as he had done in the past. The Longest Ballot Committee, which was established in 2021 to protest Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system, flooded the ballot with independent candidates and muddied the political waters. And, as Fanjoy suggested in an April 29 interview with CBC Radio’s Ottawa Morning, the issue of U.S. President Donald Trump and his tariffs could have partially turned the tide.

So be it.

Poilievre wanted to continue in politics and remain Conservative leader. His next move was to find a new seat to run in a byelection. He needed to resolve this matter quickly so that he could return to the House of Commons.

When three-term Conservative MP Damien Kurek graciously decided to step aside from his seat in Battle River-Crowfoot on May 2, a unique opportunity had opened up. Would Prime Minister Mark Carney call a byelection? He told the media that “I will ensure that it happens as soon as possible… no games, nothing, straight.” To his credit, the PM kept his word. When Kurek officially resigned on June 17, Carney issued the byelection writ on June 30.

Battle River–Crowfoot is one of the safest Conservative ridings in Canada. There hasn’t been a close result since the rural Alberta riding was created in the aforementioned 2012 federal election redistribution. Kevin Sorenson won 80.91 per cent of the vote in 2015, while Kurek won 85.5 per cent, 71.3 per cent and 82.84 per cent in 2019, 2021 and 2025, respectively.

If you include results in other iterations of the riding—Acadia, Battle River, Battle River-Camrose, Camrose and Crowfoot—it’s been in the hands of a right-leaning politician for all but two years. The only time it changed was when former Progressive Conservative MP Jack Horner crossed the floor to the Liberals in 1977. He was then crushed in the 1979 election, earning only 18.2 per cent of the vote against Progressive Conservative candidate Arnold Malone’s 77.12 per cent. (Malone decisively beat Horner again in 1980, winning 76.61 to 15.53 per cent.)

Some political pundits and prognosticators may be hoping the Aug. 18 byelection will be closer than expected. Liberal candidate Darcy Spady, along with Independents Bonnie Critchley and Sarah Spanier and some smaller party candidates, are all attempting to beat Poilievre in a riding that he’s never represented. The independence movement that has encompassed Western Canada as of late goes right through this riding. The Longest Ballot Committee has targeted Battle River–Crowfoot in hopes of creating another Carleton-like upset, too.

Don’t count on any of this happening, however.

338Canada, a respected Canadian-based political forecasting and commentary website, showed a massive Conservative lead of 80 per cent (with a possible uptick of up to six per cent) on July 13. The odds of a Conservative win in Battle River–Crowfoot are currently at 99 per cent.

Poilievre is firmly in the driver’s seat. While it obviously doesn’t matter what his margin of victory is in Battle River–Crowfoot, he would surely like to keep it close to Kurek’s most recent victory. This means he can’t rest on his laurels—which isn’t his style to begin with—and has to take it to the finish line.

That’s exactly what he’s going to do.

Michael Taube is a political commentator, Troy Media syndicated columnist and former speechwriter for Prime Minister Stephen Harper. He holds a master’s degree in comparative politics from the London School of Economics, lending academic rigour to his political insights.