Forecast positive for Calgary and Alberta housing markets

Home sales in Calgary are forecast to rise by 8.6 per cent in 2020 compared with 2019 while prices will see a one per cent hike

A new report by TD Economics paints a positive picture for Calgary housing market this year.

In the bank’s 2020 Housing Outlook, home sales in Calgary are forecast to rise by 8.6 per cent in 2020 compared with 2019 while prices will see a one per cent hike.

For Alberta, the forecast is for home sales to increase by 6.8 per cent while home prices will rise by 1.2 per cent

“Regionally, job growth is likely to slow, but remain positive, across all provinces with the sole exception of Alberta where gains are poised to accelerate on an annual average basis,” said the report.

“Last year, Alberta’s promising early-year sales uptick dissipated by May, giving way to a flatlining in activity. Sales also declined in the fourth quarter, meaning that markets entered 2020 on the back foot. On the supply side, new listings were sharply lower last year as they fell the most of any province.

“However, 2020 should bring somewhat improved fortunes for the Wild Rose Country. For starters, economic growth is forecast to gradually pick up after a tepid 2019 showing, yielding improved job growth. What’s more, population growth is accelerating, with year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2019 the fastest in over four years. Gains have been supported by a turnaround in interprovincial migration, which has been positive since mid-2018. It’s important to note that, despite a projected pickup in activity, the level of sales will remain quite low on an historical basis. As sales rise, this should result in modestly positive price growth in Alberta, with the projected one per cent gain the fastest since 2014.”

The report said Calgary home sales experienced a year-over-year decline of 14 per cent in 2018 but rebounded with an increase of two per cent in 2019. Home prices declined by 1.1 per cent in 2018 and by 3.6 per cent in 2019.

Alberta home sales fell by 7.2 per cent in 2018 and by 0.2 per cent in 2019. Prices were also down 2.4 per cent year-over-year in each of 2018 and 2019.

Mario Toneguzzi is a business reporter in Calgary.

© Calgary’s Business


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